Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 31 brokers · 319 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-21.
Coverage is deep and the headline is not really in dispute: 29 brokers model FY-2027 revenue and the quartile band around it is tight. What the models disagree on sits underneath, in the gross spend base and the take rate that converts it. The FY-2026 revenue step-up is priced rather than volume-led — median take rate moves from 20.4% to 21.6% and then flattens, leaving gross spend to carry growth from FY-2027 on. The bulk of the incremental spend brokers fund is CTV, and margins are held flat, so these models describe a volume-and-mix story rather than an operating-leverage one.
Take rate carried FY-2026; from here the models need gross spend to do the work
Median take rate steps from 20.4% in FY-2025 to 21.6% in FY-2026, then settles back at 21.4% in FY-2027 and 21.5% in FY-2028. So the FY-2026 revenue step-up is modeled as pricing, and from FY-2027 the revenue line depends almost entirely on the spend base beneath it.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spend base | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross spend | $14.14bn | $14.90bn | $16.59bn | $17.84bn | +5.4% | 22 |
| Pricing | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Take rate(%) | 20.5% | 21.4% | 21.1% | 21.3% | +0.9pt | 24 |
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue | $2.89bn | $3.18bn | $3.48bn | $3.74bn | +10.0% | 31 |
CTV supplies the growth; mobile in-app and web spend is modeled to go backwards
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross spend - Visual and TV | $6.95bn | $7.67bn | $8.74bn | $9.77bn | +10.4% | 15 |
| Gross spend - Mobile In- App & Web | $4.84bn | $4.37bn | $4.57bn | $4.66bn | -9.7% | 14 |
| Gross spend - Display, Social, Native and others | $1.54bn | $1.69bn | $1.70bn | $1.96bn | +9.6% | 15 |
| Gross spend - Audio | $728.67m | $877.26m | $1.01bn | $1.21bn | +20.4% | 14 |
The live debates: the FY-2027 take rate, and whether mobile spend ever stabilises
Under a point separates the take-rate quartiles for FY-2027, but that point applies to a gross spend base several times larger than revenue, so it is the most valuable disagreement in the set. Mobile in-app and web is the widest of the channel disputes — brokers do not agree whether it stabilises or keeps shrinking.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Take rate(%) | FY-2027E | 21.4% | 20.8%–21.6% | 18.8%–22.6% | 24 |
| Gross spend - Mobile In- App & Web | FY-2028E | $4.67bn | $4.54bn–$5.02bn | $3.33bn–$5.93bn | 10 |
| Gross spend - Visual and TV | FY-2028E | $9.58bn | $9.17bn–$10.40bn | $8.12bn–$11.58bn | 12 |
| Gross spend | FY-2028E | $17.80bn | $17.32bn–$18.42bn | $16.33bn–$20.24bn | 16 |
| Free cash flow | FY-2028E | $937.06m | $876.09m–$1.07bn | $394.24m–$1.55bn | 18 |
Revenue compounds but margins do not: adjusted EBITDA margin holds near 40% to FY-2028
On the operating (adjusted) basis, EBITDA margin stays in a roughly 40% band across all four years even as revenue compounds. FCF margin runs below FY-2025 in the outer years, and diluted share count is roughly flat from FY-2026, so per-share cash flow improves on the dollar cash flow rather than on shrinkage of the share base.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA margin(%) | 40.6% | 39.7% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -0.9pt | 31 |
| FCF margin(%) | 27.1% | 24.6% | 25.4% | 26.0% | -2.5pt | 27 |
| Income from operations - Operating | $1.06bn | $1.13bn | $1.24bn | $1.35bn | +6.0% | 29 |
| Cash and shares | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $783.03m | $782.44m | $883.85m | $978.25m | -0.1% | 27 |
| Free cash flow per share($) | $1.58 | $1.64 | $1.85 | $2.05 | +4.1% | 27 |
| Shares - Diluted(M#) | 496.13m Number | 477.24m Number | 478.99m Number | 477.08m Number | -3.8% | 28 |
The KPI tail is thin: retention and client counts rest on one to four brokers
Customer retention rate carries a single broker, and its FY-2027 value was last revised in 2022 — that is one desk's standing assumption, not consensus. Total client count rests on four brokers at FY-2027, and the US/International revenue split on two. The geographic gross spend split carries four to six.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.