Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-25.
The forward tape has been marked down across the board over the past six months: FY2027 and FY2028 consensus is lower on both revenue and normalized EPS, and EPS has been cut harder than revenue in both years. The company keeps clearing the top line — seven revenue beats in the last eight quarters — but Q1 2026 normalized EPS landed 12.4% below consensus, the only double-digit miss in the visible record. Consensus still has revenue compounding at high single digits, while gross margin drifts lower and FY2026 free cash flow falls. The street reads as unresolved: 19 holds, and price targets spanning $11 to $38.
FY2028 EPS consensus is down 23% in 180 days and revenue down 18% — the whole forward tape has been cut
Most of the damage landed between the 180-day and 90-day marks; the last 30 days have been close to flat, with FY2028 normalized EPS unchanged. That EPS was cut deeper than revenue in both years means the downgrades run through profitability assumptions, not just the top line.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $2.46 | $2.40 | $2.15 | $2.15 | -10.4% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $2.92 | $2.72 | $2.24 | $2.24 | -17.7% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $3.87bn | $3.66bn | $3.50bn | $3.48bn | -4.9% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $4.51bn | $3.96bn | $3.76bn | $3.71bn | -6.1% |
Beat / miss record
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 5 consecutive beats; EPS (normalized): 1 consecutive miss.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $678.67m | $688.86m | +1.5% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $0.32 | $0.28 | -12.4% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $840.68m | $846.79m | +0.7% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.58 | $0.59 | +1.7% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $719.34m | $739.43m | +2.8% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.44 | $0.45 | +1.8% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $686.03m | $694.04m | +1.2% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.41 | $0.41 | -0.9% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $575.28m | $616.02m | +7.1% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $0.25 | $0.33 | +33.2% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $759.56m | $741.01m | -2.4% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.57 | $0.59 | +3.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $620.46m | $628.02m | +1.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.39 | $0.41 | +4.3% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $578.12m | $584.55m | +1.1% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $0.36 | $0.39 | +9.5% | Beat |
FY2026: revenue up about 10% but consensus EBITDA up 5% and free cash flow down 5%
Consensus gross margin runs 76.7% in FY2026 against 78.7% in FY2025, and 73.6% by FY2029. Normalized EPS has one strong middle year (+16% in FY2027) before flattening to mid-single-digit growth in FY2028 and FY2029.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.89bn | $3.18bn | $3.48bn | $3.71bn | $4.04bn | — | 37 | $2.85bn / $2.91bn |
| EBITDA | $1.17bn | $1.26bn | $1.38bn | $1.47bn | $1.55bn | — | 36 | $1.13bn / $1.24bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $1.76 | $1.85 | $2.15 | $2.24 | $2.33 | — | 20 | $1.68 / $1.84 |
| Gross margin | 78.7% | 76.7% | 76.8% | 75.9% | 73.5% | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $823.05m | $780.00m | $883.32m | $966.97m | $1.10bn | — | — | — |
36 analysts put FY2027 revenue anywhere from $2.63bn to $3.80bn, and the FY2027 EBITDA range is half the mean
FY2027 revenue carries 36 analysts and EBITDA 34, so the width is not a coverage effect. GAAP EPS is the widest line of all: $0.48 to $1.50 for FY2027 across 32 analysts.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2027E | $3.48bn | $2.63bn–$3.80bn | 33.7% | 36 |
| EBITDA | FY2027E | $1.38bn | $821.00m–$1.51bn | 50.1% | 34 |
| EPS (GAAP) | FY2027E | $1.18 | $0.48–$1.50 | 86.5% | 32 |
| Revenue | FY2028E | $3.71bn | $2.41bn–$4.05bn | 44.1% | 20 |
| EBITDA | FY2028E | $1.47bn | $780.00m–$1.67bn | 60.4% | 18 |
Street snapshot
The mean target is $24.32 and the median $24.50 across 30 estimates, so the average sits near the middle of a wide band. Four analysts carry sell or underperform ratings and none is marked no opinion.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 11, Outperform 2, Hold 19, Underperform 1, Sell 3 | 36 |
| Consensus score | 2.53 | 36 |
| Target price | mean $24.32; median $24.50; high $38.00; low $11.00 | 30 |