TTDNASDAQThe short version
The Trade Desk, Inc.
The Trade Desk runs a demand-side platform: agencies and brands buy connected-TV, video, display and audio inventory through it, and the company keeps about a fifth of the spend that passes through as revenue.
The shares closed at $139.51 on 4 December 2024 and at $16.79 on 23 July 2026, an 88.0% fall over 596 days; the last close above $20.26 was $21.03 on 4 June 2026.
Mkt cap $316.1MP/E FY27E 8.1×
$17.29
Close, 24 Jul 2026
$8.53bn
Market capitalisation
3.53%
FY2025 adjusted FCF yield
-88.0%
Fall from the Dec-2024 peak
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Snapshot
The Trade Desk, Inc. in numbers
Price
$17.29as of 2026-07-24
Mkt cap
$316.1M
12m perf
−79.7%
3m ADV
$374.4M
| Year to Dec (USD) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 1.9B | 2.4B | 2.9B | 3.2B | 3.5B | 3.7B |
| EBITDA | 280.9M | 514.7M | 705.1M | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.5B |
| EBIT | 200.5M | 427.2M | 589.3M | 661.6M | 752.0M | 865.5M |
| EBIT margin | 10.3% | 17.5% | 20.3% | 20.8% | 21.6% | 23.3% |
| EPS | 0.36 | 0.78 | 0.90 | 1.85 | 2.15 | 2.24 |
| P/E | 48.0× | 22.2× | 19.2× | 9.3× | 8.1× | 7.7× |
| FCF yield | 174.5% | 202.9% | 251.8% | 246.8% | 279.5% | 305.9% |
Consensus: S&P Capital IQ (CapIQ) · as of 2026-07-25Derived from run data; ratios use the latest price.
IThe business
How it makes money
Ad buyers routed $13.4bn of spend through the platform in FY2025; the company kept 21.6% as revenue
Gross spend, revenue and take rate
| Fiscal year | Gross spend | Revenue | Take rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | $7,741m | $1,578m | 20.4% |
| FY2023 | $9,611m | $1,946m | 20.3% |
| FY2024 | $12,041m | $2,445m | 20.3% |
| FY2025 | $13,395m | $2,896m | 21.6% |
Take rate is revenue divided by gross spend, both as filed.
- The product. A self-service platform on which agencies and brands buy connected-TV, video, display and audio inventory drawn from over 430 integrated exchanges, publishers and supply-side platforms.
- The fee. Revenue is a percentage of the spend clients run through the platform. That percentage rose to 21.6% in FY2025 from 20.3%, and carried 7.2 of the year's 18.5 points of revenue growth.
- The clients. Master agreements carry no material spend commitment and are terminable on 60 days' notice; client retention has exceeded 95% in each of the last eleven reported years.
Scale and position
The platform touches 1.9% of the digital advertising market the company itself sizes above $700bn
FY2025 advertising scale
Each figure as reported by the company that discloses it.
- Independent, not integrated. It buys inventory it does not own; its two largest named competitors sell advertising against media they control. Amazon's ad revenue is 23.7 times TTD's.
- Where the revenue is booked. The United States produced $2,476.7m in FY2025, 85.5% of the total, against $419.6m international. One operating segment, 3,843 employees, no divisional economics disclosed.
- The margin. FY2025 adjusted EBITDA was $1,196.4m on $2,896.3m of revenue, and net cash from operating activities grew 34% to $992.7m.
IIIThe story now
The fit
Outside the framework's universe (U2 not met); contested: X1, X2, X3, X4, S1, P5
$8.53bn
Market cap against the $10bn line14.7% short
3.53%
Adjusted FCF yield against an 8.5% bar497 bps short
0.41
Trial probability the damage is temporaryspread 0.30
Low
Confidence tiersix criteria contested
Per-criterion verdicts, probabilities and spreads as recorded by the deterministic tally.
- The arithmetic that resolves it. 493,551,000 shares at the $17.29 close of 24 July 2026 is $8.53bn against a $10bn universe line, a shortfall of $1.467bn. The price that clears the line is $20.26.
- The counter-fact. The miss is a price event of recent vintage, not a shrinking business: FY2025 revenue grew 18.5% to $2,896.3m, operating cash flow 34% to $992.7m and gross spend 11%.
- The rest of the ledger. The year-10 gate is not met on four seats at 0.585. No exclusion was hit on any seat, though five of those tests are recorded contested on label divergence.
The drawdown
Down 88.0% over 596 days, on two dated events and the largest one-day fall in the company's history
Daily closes since the September 2016 listing; peak and trough marked.
- Two triggers. A Q4 2024 revenue miss reported 12 February 2025 was followed by a 32.98% fall the next session; a guidance reset with a simultaneous CFO departure on 7 August 2025 was followed by 38.61%.
- Capitulation, measured. Peak 20-day volume ran 8.89 times the pre-peak median against a 2x reference line, with single sessions at 36.1x on 8 August 2025 and 28.3x on 5 March 2026.
- The timing problem. That 8.89x window ended 24 March 2026, at closes of $22.34 to $29.79. At the 23 July low the trailing 20-day average was 4.48x, the lightest reading in five months.
Damage math
Over the only window the estimate record covers, consensus fell 10% to 23% and the price fell 48.9%
Change from 26 January 2026 to 24 July 2026
Revision history reaches back only 180 days, so the estimate path across the first fourteen months of the fall cannot be reconstructed from this run.
- No cut in level terms. FY2026 consensus earnings of $1.85 sit 4.6% above the FY2025 actual of $1.77. What was cut is the growth rate: six guides stepped from 17.0% to 8.1%.
- What the trial returned. Two opposing cited briefs read by three blind judges gave a 0.41 probability that the impairment is temporary, spread 0.30 — recorded contested, and not stable to reading order.
- The case on the other side. An inventory-owning rival 23.7 times the size holds exclusive positions in the largest channel, and a holding-company fee audit is aimed at the take rate.
Year-10 durability
None of the framework's five sources of year-10 conviction is present on the filed record
The five conviction sources, against the filed record
| Conviction source | What the record shows |
|---|---|
| Market structure | The issuer calls its own industry highly competitive and fragmented; 1.9% of a $700bn market |
| Regulatory barriers | No licensing or authorisation regime governs a demand-side platform |
| Capital intensity | FY2025 capex of $197.0m is 6.8% of revenue; net property and equipment is 6.4% of assets |
| Essential product | Client agreements carry no material spend commitment, terminable on 60 days' notice |
| Operating history | Incorporated 2009, listed 2016 — under ten years public against a 30-to-50-year line |
The gate is binary by construction: any proper doubt resolves it.
- Unanimous, and the tightest in the ledger. All four seats returned not met, at a probability of 0.585 with a spread of 0.04.
- The counter-fact, and it is substantial. Revenue rose in all ten reported fiscal years to 14.3 times the FY2016 level, retention has held above 95% for eleven years, and there is no funded debt.
- What is left protecting year-10 cash flow. Execution and a 21.6% take rate — and the framework does not count execution as a moat.
Self-help
$2.45bn of stock repurchased since 2023, and the share count sits 4.0% below its end-2022 level
Shares outstanding
Period-end counts from the filed statements of stockholders' equity.
- The ledger's only split vote. Three seats not met against one met: 57.6% of the repurchase value went back out to employees, so 45.9m shares retired became a 4.0% net reduction, 490.5m to 471.0m.
- Prices paid. The program's average is $53.23 against $17.29 today. Q1 2026 repurchases averaged $24.51, the lowest of the program, and $327m of authorisation remained at 31 March 2026.
- The funding. FY2025 repurchases of $1,380.4m exceeded that year's free cash flow of $795.7m by $585.1m, and cash and investments fell from $1,921.5m to $1,303.1m.
The clock
Seven completed drawdowns since listing have a median depth of 35.6%; this one stands at 88.0%
Drawdown depth by episode
Episodes of 30% or more since September 2016; the December 2024 episode is unfinished.
- Base rates from this name. Median round trip 165 days. The deepest prior episode, 64.3%, ran 358 days to its trough and 2.88 years back to peak, and did so while FY2022 revenue grew 31.9%.
- Why it may not transfer. Median gains from the seven prior troughs were 171% at 12 months and 377% at 24 months — but each occurred while revenue compounded 23% to 55%, against 9.7% now.
- The next dated test. Q2 FY2026 reports 6 August 2026, guided to at least $750m and about 8.1% growth. The Publicis spend pause settled 12 June 2026; a third CFO in twelve months started 9 July 2026.
IVThe price
Yield against the bar
On the framework's basis the yield is 3.53% against an 8.5% bar — 497 basis points short
Adjusted FCF yield against the fortress reference line
3-year average
2.0%
FY2025 adjusted
3.5%
TTM to Mar-2026
4.3%
FY2025 reported, unadjusted
9.3%
Adjusted FCF is reported FCF less stock-based compensation less the trailing five-year average of acquisition spend, over an $8,533.5m market capitalisation.
- The whole gap is one line. Reported free cash flow of $795.7m is a 9.32% yield and clears the bar; stock-based compensation of $490.6m is what the framework's basis subtracts.
- Net cash selects the friendliest bar. $1,405.9m of cash and investments against zero funded debt and an undrawn $750m revolver puts the reference line at 8.5% rather than 10% or 25%.
- Direction of travel. Adjusted free cash flow has risen every year since FY2022, from minus $36.7m to $301.6m, because that expense has been flat in dollars while revenue grew 83.6%.
The forward path
Restated onto the framework's basis, consensus peaks at 7.08% in FY2029 — short of the bar throughout
Consensus free-cash-flow yield on two bases
The consensus definition is cash from operations less capital expenditure, which adds stock compensation back.
- The probability. Four seats put the forward path at 0.18 with a spread of 0.08; the skeptic pass weakened the point estimate, and it is carried as a range of roughly 10% to 30%.
- Banking the option roll-off. Crediting the chief executive's performance option expiry in full lifts the series to 4.17% in FY2026 and 7.95% in FY2029. Neither path reaches 8%.
- What clearing by FY2028 would take. $682.7m of adjusted free cash flow: reported free cash flow about 14% above consensus, or a 43% cut to stock compensation against $290m a year already committed.
Re-rating arithmetic
On reported cash flow $17.29 sits 52% under the permanent case; on the adjusted basis, 7% above it
Discounted cash flow by scenario, per share
| Scenario | Reported basis | Adjusted basis |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-event curve | $56.91 | $24.63 |
| Temporary | $45.96 | $20.22 |
| Permanent | $35.76 | $16.11 |
| Price, 24 Jul 2026 | $17.29 | $17.29 |
A 10% discount rate and 3% terminal growth from year eleven, held identical across scenarios.
- No re-rating upside is published. The tally returns none: stock compensation is absent from the numeric cash-flow feed for every year FY2016 to FY2025, so no price-at-bar can be computed from this run.
- The sensitivity. Across a 9% to 11% discount rate and 2% to 4% terminal growth the adjusted permanent value spans $13.64 to $20.48, so at 9% and 3% the price falls back below value.
- Where the street stands. A mean target of $24.32 is 40.7% above the close, with 23 of 36 ratings at hold or lower.
What to watch
Ten straight years of revenue growth; at $8.53bn the equity sits below the framework's entry line
- 01Q2 FY2026 (6 Aug 2026) revenue below the $750m guide, or FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guided below 40%
- 02Q3 FY2026 (reports November 2026) revenue growth of 13%+
- 03revenue declines for a third consecutive year
- 04share count inflects upward
These screens distil a fixed fit test built tab by tab; the full report carries the citations, the arithmetic and the data gaps.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-29 · For information, not investment advice.